Germany’s cannabis industry faces uncertainty after conservative leader Friedrich Merz secured an election victory. With his party historically opposing legalization efforts, the progress made under Chancellor Olaf Scholz could face delays—or even reversal. Industry leaders and patients alike are now watching closely to see how the political landscape unfolds.
A Conservative Win and the Road Ahead
Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has long been skeptical of cannabis legalization. Now, with a likely coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), questions arise over whether Germany’s recent cannabis reforms will hold.
Merz argues that the new laws, which allow adults to possess up to 25 grams of cannabis and cultivate three plants at home, have led to an uptick in drug-related crime. He hasn’t provided concrete data to support this claim, but his stance suggests that at the very least, further expansion of cannabis legalization could stall.
However, reversing the new policies entirely would be a complex and time-consuming process. Industry insiders, like Niklas Kouparanis of Bloomwell Group, believe that even conservative politicians may lack the time and political capital to roll back legalization completely.
The Medical Cannabis Industry at a Crossroads
Germany’s medical cannabis industry has existed since 2017 but operated under strict regulations. It wasn’t until April 2023 that the country removed cannabis from its narcotics list, significantly expanding patient access.
Now, there’s a sense of unease in the industry. While the CDU might not prioritize overturning medical cannabis reforms, a conservative-led government could tighten restrictions on prescribing and distribution.
One of the biggest concerns is whether digital prescriptions and online pharmacy access—both crucial to medical cannabis accessibility—will face new barriers. Kouparanis urged the new government to focus on digital innovation rather than restrictions, highlighting the economic benefits of a modernized healthcare system.
What Happens to Germany’s Recreational Cannabis Market?
Germany took a major step forward in April 2023 by decriminalizing small amounts of cannabis. However, plans for a fully regulated recreational market remain uncertain.
Here’s where things get tricky:
- Decriminalization is not full legalization. While possession and cultivation are allowed within limits, commercial sales outside pharmacies remain illegal.
- Clubs and social models were on the table. Before the election, lawmakers debated a model allowing non-commercial cannabis clubs, similar to Spain’s setup. Whether this idea progresses under the new government remains unclear.
- Local opposition could rise. Even if national laws stay in place, conservative-led states could introduce new hurdles, such as zoning restrictions or policing strategies targeting cannabis users.
The Global Implications for Cannabis Reform
Germany is the largest economy in Europe and was set to influence cannabis policies across the EU. If the new government slows down or complicates legalization, other European nations that looked to Germany as a model may hesitate to push forward with their own reforms.
For investors, uncertainty is never good news. Major cannabis companies have been eyeing Germany as a key market. A shift in policy—or even prolonged indecision—could push businesses to reconsider their expansion plans.
At the same time, completely undoing cannabis reform would be a significant political and logistical challenge. With public opinion shifting in favor of legalization and an industry already in motion, the CDU may find resistance from within the business and medical communities.
The Waiting Game Begins
Germany’s new government is expected to be in place by Easter. Until then, the cannabis industry—and its patients—will be waiting to see whether Merz and his coalition partners choose to move forward with reform, keep things as they are, or start rolling back progress.
For now, one thing is certain: the next few months will be crucial in determining the future of cannabis in Germany.